Betting markets knew Carney was a lock. It’s time to start listening

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OTTAWA — National Post Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson sits down with parliamentary reporter Christopher Nardi to discuss Mark Carney’s election as Liberal leader and how betting markets can be used to predict Canadian politics.

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Carney won the Liberal leadership on Sunday, garnering 86 per cent of the votes, and will soon become prime minister this week. But anyone who followed the odds on betting websites or looked at predictions markets would have known weeks ago that it was likely a lock for Carney.

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Should we be using these websites, where bettors put their money where their mouth is, to guide our understanding of the political scene?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week that that the transition to the new leader “should happen reasonably quickly.” Carney will be sworn in as prime minister this week and is expected to appoint a smaller cabinet in the next few days.

Carney, who has never held elected office, garnered the most endorsements from the Liberal caucus and raised the most donations by a wide margin. His campaign said in a statement it has raised more than $5 million in fundraising during the two-month campaign.

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