Ridings to watch: Regina-Wascana and Churchill River

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Saskatchewan has emerged as a sea of blue in the last two federal elections, but pollsters say two ridings are shaping up to be potential battlegrounds this time around between the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada.

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Twelve of Saskatchewan’s 14 electoral districts are currently polling as safe bets for the Conservatives, according to seat projections compiled by 338Canada and based on available pollster data.

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All three of Saskatoon’s ridings are likely to stay Conservative blue, while two of Regina’s three seats are predicted as comfortably safe for incumbents Warren Steinley (Regina—Lewvan) and former CPC leader Andrew Scheer (Regina—Qu’Appelle).

However, some polling for Regina-Wascana shows a much tighter race between the Conservatives and Liberals than in 2021, when Michael Kram garnered half the popular vote and left the Liberals 23 percentage points behind.

Kram has held the east Regina riding since 2019 after ousting long-time Liberal Ralph Goodale, who had spent 26 consecutive years in office.

He faces four challengers this election: Liberal Jeffery Walters, the NDP’s Kaitlyn Stadnyk, the Green Party’s Kimberly Epp and Peter Bruce of the People’s Party of Canada.

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338Canada had Walters trailing Kram by just three percentage points heading into election day, but some pundits doubt the Conservatives are at a true risk of losing the seat based on campaign movements so far.

The northern riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River is also projected as likely to flip from blue to red this election.

Conservative candidate Jim Lemaigre is attempting to hold the seat for predecessor Gary Vidal, who defeated Liberal Buckley Belanger in 2021.

Belanger is vying for the seat again this election. He finished a distant second to Vidal in the previous race, but is expected to do better in 2025 after the large Conservative community of Meadow Lake was carved out of the riding’s borders.

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The riding hasn’t had a sitting Liberal MP since 2006, but has only been a Conservative seat since 2019 when Vidal defeated NDP’s Georgina Jolibois. This year, Doug Racine trails in third for the NDP.

Both Lemaigre and Belanger have served before as provincial MLAs for the same region, known as Athabasca.

Belanger stepped down as an NDP MLA in 2021 to run federally, and Lemaigre took the seat for the Saskatchewan Party in the ensuing 2022 byelection. He then lost a return bid in the 2024 provincial election to the Saskatchewan NDP’s Leroy Laliberte.

Stay tuned here for updated coverage as polls begin to report in tonight.

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