Why Senators’ health continues to determine playoff fate
Ottawa— Hamburgers aren’t healthy but the Senators finally are, and it showed on Saturday night against the Sharks.
The Senators beat San Jose 5-3 to snap their five-game losing streak, thanks to the return of Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Shane Pinto to the lineup on the evening when the team celebrated the 10-year anniversary of the Andrew “The Hamburglar” Hammond’s run that led Ottawa to the playoffs in 2015.
In 2025, the Senators don’t need a remarkable 20-1-2 heater like Hammond’s to claw into the playoffs, but they need healthy players.
Of course, when any team’s best players are unavailable, it has a negative effect, but it’s been stark in Ottawa. It’s almost two different teams. Ottawa has a record of 25-14-4 (.628 points percentage) with Tkachuk, Norris, Pinto all in the lineup and 5-11-0 (.313) points percentage) when they’ve missed at least one of them this season.
Senators when Tkachuk/Norris/Pinto all play since 2020-21:
2024-25: 25-14-4 (.628)
2023-24: 9-5-2 (.625)
2022-23: 4-4-0 (.500)
2021-22: 1-1-0 (.500)
2020-21: 9-2-1 (.792)
Total: 48-26-7 (.636)
(FYI: it’s almost identical if you swap out Tkachuk for Stutzle)
The impact of the trio was immediate.
After a “casual” start according to coach Travis Green,, Pinto gave Senators a much-needed jolt in the first period. Pinto ,who had been on fire short-handed before his injury, kept it up by anticipating Ridly Greig’s takeaway at his own blueline. Greig fed Pinto onto a breakaway where he would bury a goal to open the scoring 1-0.
“Obviously we were missing those guys (Tkachuk, Norris, Pinto), they’re big-time players,” said David Perron post-game. “And we saw it even the way the first period went, not so great. (Then) Pinto scores a goal on a penalty kill. Huge swing there for us. So yeah, we were happy to get them back.”
The Senators had scored short-handed goals in three straight games before Norris and Pinto got hurt. Make it four with them in the line-up. Ottawa is now up to fourth in the league in short-handed goals with nine. Norris and Pinto have six of them.
Sportsnet.ca asked Green about how prolific Norris and Pinto have been short-handed.
“That is something we’ve stressed a little bit since probably two months ago,” he said. “Being aggressive and having an aggressive mindset, not just when you don’t have the puck but also if you’ve got a chance to get some good players that can make plays, try to score if you can. You see the rise in that around the league.”
Unfortunately, due to Pinto and Norris having both suffered serious shoulder injuries in the past and Pinto’s gambling related suspension last season, the trio hasn’t played much together. And the injuries have continued this season.
That is a question for now and the future: can Pinto and Norris stay healthy?
But what’s clear is their impact on the Senators when they don’t play. In their recent five-game losing streak, Ottawa scored eight goals in five games, including two of those when Tkachuk didn’t play. But the team scored five on Saturday.
Oddly, the underlying metrics are not too dissimilar with and without Tkachuk, Norris and Pinto in the lineup this season.
In the 43 games where all three have played, Ottawa has outshot opponents 1253 to 1202 (+51 or +1.18 SOG diff) while they were outscored 41 to 53.
In the 16 games when at least one of the three weren’t playing, Ottawa has outshot teams 495-465 (+30 or +1.76 SOG diff) while outscoring opponents 125 to 115.
Puzzling as that may seem, the explanation is simple. These guys are Ottawa’s finishers. Ottawa has struggled to score this season, and they have the fourth worst team shooting percentage in the NHL at 9.44 per cent. But Norris is second on the team in shooting percentage at 20.34 and Pinto is fourth with a 13.04. Tkachuk is ninth, but he has always been a volume shooter. He has eclipsed 250 shots in each of the last three seasons and is at 240 this season.
Tkachuk showed his unicorn attributes at the Four Nations where he fought, beat up opponents and scored but got hurt too. He lives life on the edge, and he was burned on Saturday when he took an undisciplined roughing penalty in the second period, which he admitted was his fault post-game. San Jose capitalized on the power play to tie the game and eventually take the lead 2-1.
Ottawa was in a precarious position. Prior to Saturday night this season, Ottawa was 1-20-0 when trailing heading into the final frame. But the captain made up for his mistakes and rose to the occasion this time. After a puck over the glass gave Ottawa a five on three early in the third period, Tkachuk rifled a shot past Vitek Vanecek to tie the game, 2-2. It was more than a “big” goal in a playoff race.
Tkachuk celebrated by grabbing the Senators crest to metaphorically shut down any apprehensions about his loyalty to Ottawa after many unsubstantiated trade rumours have circled around him this season and once again after he played for the U.S. at the Four Nations.
Tkachuk explained his celebration: “Show my love for the fans. It will be a fun ride, so just buckle up and enjoy it.”
The tide of the game immediately turned. Less than two minutes later Ottawa took the lead after a dump-in magically ricocheted off the boards in front of San Jose’s net and Tim Stutzle scored into a yawning cage. It was a fortunate play that echoed the luck of Hamburglar-run bounces from a decade ago.
Later in the third period, David Perron, who played with Josh Norris all night, buried home his second of the season to give Ottawa a 4-2 lead which effectively sealed the Senators’ victory.
Ottawa has been up and down all season, with multiple five-game winning and losing streaks. What’s stayed constant is that when they are healthy, they win. If Ottawa gets some luck on the injury report front to end the regular season, they have what it takes to make the playoffs. The .628 points percentage when Tkachuk, Norris and Pinto all play this season would almost assuredly be enough to secure a playoff spot.
Tkachuk said post-game about how he was feeling: “All right.”
“Everybody’s got something going on this time of year. So (I’ll) grind it out and find a way and enjoy the ride.”
Speaking of health, Jake Sanderson took a gruesome cross-check across the neck from Tyler Toffoli which made him leave the game late in the third period. Green did not have an update on Sanderson’s condition.
